r/news Feb 05 '23

Colorado River crisis so severe lakes Mead and Powell are unlikely to refill in our lifetimes Soft paywall

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-02-05/colorado-river-reservoirs-unlikely-to-refill-experts-say
40.1k Upvotes

9.0k

u/porncrank Feb 06 '23 Helpful All-Seeing Upvote Take My Energy

Refilled? They haven't even stopped sucking them dry yet. I think we'd have to turn the ship so we don't run aground before worrying how long it'll take to get home.

And it's nothing fundamental -- it's entirely about misguided century old laws and foolish water usage practices. If they stop trying to farm water-hungry crops in the desert the problem would be solved overnight. If they allocated water as a percentage of inflows instead of absolute amounts based on fairy dust numbers, the problem would be solved overnight. I live in Las Vegas, where we use less than 4% of the water and return everything that goes down our drain back to the reservoir. We disallow new lawns and pay people to remove old ones. We're trying. This thing may all collapse, but it's entirely about greedy, powerful assholes that refuse to make changes and milquetoast political leadership that cowers from that required confrontation. Absolute tragedy of the commons and the good will suffer with the bad.

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u/Bweeze086 Feb 06 '23

I live in Vegas too. It's wild how people try to blame the city when the water authority saw this issue coming and did a lot to prevent it from being an issue. Farming is the culprit, like you said. Not an almost net 0 city along the banks

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u/DessertTwink Feb 06 '23

There's documentaries about how water efficient Las Vegas is. None of that will matter, of course, with everyone else along the Colorado River draining it dry

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u/Momoselfie Feb 06 '23

Isn't even the Mississippi started to shrink now?

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u/cruznick06 Feb 06 '23

The Niobrara in Nebraska has been dropping in level since at least 2016 due to farming in the Sandhills region. I wouldn't be surprised about the Mississippi dropping.

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u/A_Fainting_Goat Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

The Mississippi is doing alright. The upper Midwest has quite a bit of water but we went through the same drought everyone did theast two years which led to lower water levels, but not worryingly low. The issues were mainly in the southern half of the river where the levels got low enough to affect commercial traffic, but the corps* of engineers was able to adjust the dam levels enough to mitigate it. We've been having pretty strong winter snows now too so water isn't an issue (until the next drought).

Edit: typo

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u/theumph Feb 06 '23

It always seems like the upper Midwest is so stable when it comes to environmental disasters. There's plenty of water, no hurricanes, no earthquakes, few tornadoes, and difficult conditions for invasive species to wreak havoc. It's just cold. I could see a lot of population moving here as climate change causes issues elsewhere.

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u/Exelbirth Feb 06 '23

Fun fact: I've seen maps of what areas would have the most desirable climates if/when we fail to deal with climate change, and Minnesota is just outside of the edge of the most desired areas. Basically, the great lakes are the border between "lovely climate" and "I wish we lived somewhere better."

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u/_MrDomino Feb 06 '23

Blame the NFC North for the latter.

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u/rexmus1 Feb 06 '23

Our motto with regards to what we see weather-wise in the rest of the country: "no thanks, I'll just shovel the walk."

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u/NevDot17 Feb 06 '23

I love the Great Lakes area, winter and all. I find seasons interesting...

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u/Philip_Marlowe Feb 06 '23

Shhhh... Let us hold out a little while longer before everyone figures out how great it is here.

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u/[deleted] Feb 06 '23

Cedar Rapids checking in a few years after a derecho.

If you dont know what that is look it up. Way more devastating than a tornado and is popping up more frequently

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u/Classic-Tiny Feb 06 '23

Ohio river is dropping a bit too. Not as bad as most, but noticable throughout Kentucky and the connecting water ways.

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u/[deleted] Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 16 '23

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u/Fiyero109 Feb 06 '23

Why the hell are we farming in the desert?! Should be banned entirely

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u/Illustrious_Crab1060 Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

Because direct sunlight and rich topsoil

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u/Mobitron Feb 06 '23

You mean to insinuate that miles upon miles of alfalfa farms in the middle of the desert isn't the best choice of crop for the preservation of the aquifers, water table etc? Nonsense, the Saudi magnates love that shit!

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u/Sprygull97 Feb 06 '23

I’m in Utah and we get like 25% of our water from the Colorado river. Local news agencies have stated that the Great Salt Lake is set to dry up in like 5 years and there’s heavy metals like arsenic in the dirt at the bottom. The wind will pick it up and blow it all over the state and probably other states as well causing health problems and death for many people. The rivers that fill the GSL are constantly being diverted to new housing developments. The biggest thing that’s taking all our water are stupid alfalfa farmers who use like 60%-65% of utahs water just for their dumb farms. And there’s basically no water restrictions in Utah. We’re so fucked it’s not even funny.

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u/dammitmitchell Feb 06 '23

What's gonna really piss you off is the sheer numbers of alfalfa and pecan fields that are foreign owned!!! How is it cheaper to grow hay in the desert and ship it back to Saudi than it is to source from there!

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u/NevDot17 Feb 06 '23

The Saudis want to preserve their water sources and have zero concerns about screwing up the US Southwest

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u/SOUTHPAWMIKE Feb 06 '23

And our politicians are more than happy to take their money.

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u/gracecee Feb 06 '23

It’s really cheap to buy your officials or put your farming friends on the water boards. People don’t follow who’s running the water boards during elections.

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u/Professional_Meet_72 Feb 06 '23

All of these states acting independently of each other when it comes to water usage, and sale/lease of land to foreign countries calls for... federal oversight.

But States rights!

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u/Mr_Metrazol Feb 06 '23

First off, foreign ownership of any American farmland should be outlawed. Force the sale of the land at fair rates to American citizens. It's a matter of national security that our farmland should be under our own control.

Second, just grow the alfalfa in climates where it's meant to be grown. Not in a friggen desert. Export sales aren't inherently bad, just the practice of growing water needy crops in arid regions.

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u/Incredulous_Toad Feb 06 '23

If you want a glimpse into the potential future, look up what happened to the Aral Sea. It's going be the direct cause of massive geopolitical distress in the next 50 years.

All due to poor water management.

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u/Supersnow845 Feb 06 '23

The Aral Sea is truly one of the biggest environmental crimes committed by humans

Still makes me sad whenever it comes up

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u/Bruhtatochips23415 Feb 06 '23

It's totally reversible too. But barely anybody is reversing it.

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u/mak484 Feb 06 '23

The Wikipedia entry is infuriating. Some highlights:

The USSR claimed the Aral Sea was "nature's mistake" and that drying it up was actually better for the environment. Experts and local officials knew this was a lie, but were afraid of being punished if they argued, so they mostly said nothing.

The tributaries were redirected to grow cotton, because the USSR wanted a cash crop.

Uzbekistan decided long ago to resign its portion of the sea to its fate. Not only have they made no attempts to restore the sea, they're now trying to extract fossil fuels from the seabed.

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u/Bruhtatochips23415 Feb 06 '23

Uzbekistan doesn't even really have the ability to reverse it themselves.

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u/bitmapfrogs Feb 06 '23

The north aral is recoverable, but needs a bigger dam to fully recover. Kazakhastan is committed.

The problem is the south aral… you’ve got a mess of countries draining the tributaries with 0 interest to change anything.

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u/Fiyero109 Feb 06 '23

Write to your state government! They need to ban alfalfa farming

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u/broganisms Feb 06 '23

One of the biggest alfalfa farmers in Utah is the Mormon church, which is a massive lobbying force. Zero chance the state does anything to curb the practice.

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u/ted_cruzs_micr0pen15 Feb 06 '23

In Arizona there’s a lot of Saudi alfalfa, but there’s also a lot of other farming that uses a giant amount of water. People bitch about golf courses but they barely use a fraction of a percentage point.

Ag will pay media to run stories about Bologna. The people will pass redundant laws that punish themselves and farmers will keep using the water until it’s all gone. The issue is that cities won’t believe it’s possible until it just happens and everyone will wonder WHYYYY?!?!?! Ask them how they voted when they do.

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u/[deleted] Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 16 '23

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u/anthropophagus Feb 06 '23

stupid mormons believe the earth will be restored to its "divine" state after the second coming too, so they don't care about any damage they do

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u/NeonSwank Feb 06 '23

Never understood how anyone can read “Man should be stewards of the Earth” and take that as “use up/burn every possible resource, god says he’s totally okay with it”

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u/physicomorphic Feb 06 '23

Too many religious people just use their religion as a justification, whether it's for greed, bigotry, violence etc. etc. Especially American Evangelical Christianity is so far from what that religion should be that it'd be unrecognizable if it wasn't using the "trademarks" of Christianity

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u/jeffersonairmattress Feb 06 '23

You’re right- it’s not just Mormons. All manner of sects shelter egoistic humans who think it their role to nudge things along a bit. Dominionists wanting to throw gasoline on the Middle East, idiot evangelicals wanting a race war… though LDS loves to have Scientology to take the heat off, their shenanigans are no more stupid than Mormons drawing a major river dry for a demonstrably fake religion invented by a cynic.

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u/Whiterabbit-- Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

Just charge for water use. If farmers are paying the same cost for water as cities, they will find ways to be more efficient. Alfalfa is not competitive at those water rates.

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u/alicethekiller87 Feb 06 '23

Our governor farms alfalfa so….

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u/IreJustin Feb 06 '23

And about 1/3rd is exported to China, per my quick google search.

We do the same in AZ, except it goes to Saudi Arabia... Another arid landscape.

I don't understand it. =(

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u/81system Feb 06 '23

The mormons do not respect the land unlike the natives.

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u/Brave_Armadillo5298 Feb 06 '23

Yea....but it's not like Utah is gonna vote different, so don't expect anything to change

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u/Pestillent_dog_2 Feb 06 '23

From my understanding utah uses 87% of water for agriculture while the population uses 9% and companies use 4%

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u/uptrendco Feb 06 '23

Alfalfa farms, owned by Saudi Arabia

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u/skytomorrownow Feb 06 '23

greedy, powerful assholes

Like the Arizona farmers who sell their souls to the Saudis so the royal family's horses can have only the best Colorado River water alfalfa.

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u/khinzaw Feb 06 '23

Las Vegas is the gold standard for water conservation in the West. Maybe not perfect, but way better than anywhere else.

In Utah, instead of doing anything about drought conditions the governor asked people to pray for rain. Meanwhile St. George consumes absurd amounts of water per person and has a ton of golf courses.

California needs to do what they can to use desalinated water where possible to reduce their usage of water that landlocked states need.

Everyone needs to improve their water recycling capabilities.

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u/whatisthesoulofaman Feb 06 '23

In case anyone thinks u/khinzaw is kidding about the governor asking people to pray, he unfortunately is not.

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u/RE5TE Feb 06 '23

Desalination has issues killing sea life. The brine that is ejected creates a dead zone. The salt has to go somewhere.

The real issue in California is the farmers. They have unlimited water rights from over 100 years ago. It's time to cancel them, pay them a token amount, and be done with it.

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u/stars9r9in9the9past Feb 06 '23

yet you drive hundreds of miles up/down i-5/99 and see signs complaining about demanding more water

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u/soulflaregm Feb 06 '23

We can talk about how bad the choices of what to use the water on are all day

The REAL problem is that more water share permits exist than there is water.

If that wasn't happening, while the choices of use would still be bad. It wouldn't be draining from overuse

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u/Momoselfie Feb 06 '23

The states have obviously done a terrible job handling water rights. Time for the Fed to step in.

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u/EmbarrassedHelp Feb 06 '23

Can the feds step in if Congress can't do anything itself?

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u/Motobugs Feb 05 '23

I'm more concerned about whether those lakes will completely dry out in the near future.

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u/randomnighmare Feb 05 '23

It's already approaching dead pool status as of right now. Plus, they didn't get those massive rainstorms, unlike what happened to California. And California is still, technically in a drought but those storms did help.

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u/Berwynne Feb 06 '23

Me, watching drought monitor to see the impact of the most recent 1.5” of rain in the CA foothills. 😅

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u/Blockhead47 Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

A big problem we have in CA is the groundwater is so depleted in the central valley.
Historically a lot of flood water used to stand and soak in doesn't anymore due to flood control.

Edit: we are doing great for the year so far though. I hope we can keep adding to the snow pack. Help the pine trees get more sap to fight the bark beetles.
https://ggweather.com/seasonal_rain.htm

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u/[deleted] Feb 06 '23

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u/dude_from_ATL Feb 06 '23

But Colorado did get those massive rainstorms in the form of snow, the Rockies are well above average for snowfall so far this year.

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u/BadMedAdvice Feb 06 '23

I think people are getting the wrong impression about the snowfall. Being a little over eager. It's at 190%, yes. So almost double normal. But this is like getting a full paycheck bonus... When you're $100k in debt. Sure, it helps. But it doesn't come close to solving the problem on its own.

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u/neubourn Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

Yeah, here in Las Vegas we had a lot of rain in December and January, and people wondered how it affected the water level in lake Mead. Turns out, in February the lake level has increased since December...by 4 feet. Never mind the fact that the lake level right now is 20 feet lower than it was February 2022, and 40 feet lower than it was February 2021.

On December 1, 2022, the lake's water levels were 1,042.97 feet above sea level, while as of February 1, 2023, they measured 1,046.99 feet. On February 1 in 2022 and 2021, respectively, the water levels were at 1,067.14 and 1,086.1 feet above sea level.

https://www.newsweek.com/lake-mead-water-levels-filling-dead-pool-1778247

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u/cubedjjm Feb 06 '23

Same in California. We are at almost 200% of normal (as of two weeks ago) here in Northern California. If we get no more rain for the year we will only be at 80% of normal. Why do I say we might not get more rain? It happened last year. We didn't get any significant rain past January in 2022.

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u/BadMedAdvice Feb 06 '23

Here in Vegas, we got damn near nothing in 2021. And it's been pretty thin since the 90s. We'd need about a decade of years like this to put us in "ok" territory. But I just don't see that happening.

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u/BRAX7ON Feb 05 '23

Bonny Reservoir was a summer fishing and water sport destination when I was young. It completely dried up about 15 years ago. Has not come back since and as far as I know it will never be back. It was an amazing place with some extremely rare and endangered fish. And this is in Colorado, I can’t imagine what the southwest is going to be facing.

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u/xakanaxa Feb 06 '23

That's because centre-pivot irrigation for industrial agriculture sucked it all up, like the rest of the Great Plains.

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u/dba1990 Feb 05 '23 edited Feb 05 '23

I’m more concerned when will cities like Phoenix or Las Vegas enter Cape Town-levels of water scarcity and the inevitable, nightmarish-dystopian rationing of freshwater.

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u/Aazadan Feb 05 '23

Vegas is unlikely to run out of water. It's one of the most water efficient cities in the US, and can draw from existing water sources at lower levels than those it shares with can. And as is, they don't even go near their allotment levels.

So long as there's not a large mass migration to Vegas, their situation is sustainable. Californias is sustainable as well for residential usage (agriculture is another matter). It's Arizona, New Mexico, etc that are going to see problems.

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u/ThatGuy798 Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

So long as there's not a large mass migration to Vegas

Funny you mention that because Vegas has seen like a 20% growth in population from 2000-2020 but only single digit percentage increase in water usage Edit: It was actually a decrease in water usage. The secret is that they have really good water policies like paying people not to have green lawns while Casinos reuse water.

They don't have extreme austere policies either. This could easily be applied to any other SW city.

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u/TheVostros Feb 06 '23

Actually they had a decrease in water usage of billions of gallons of water over that time span, but your points are the same

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u/Neuchacho Feb 06 '23

Not to say their measures aren't incredibly helpful, but I think this also illustrates just how much water is being used for wastefully placed agricultural centers in places like Arizona.

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u/BMW_325is Feb 06 '23

Albuquerque has one of the best water conservation plans in the country. There is more water available now than there was 20 years ago. They actually have a growing groundwater supply.

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u/RAF2018336 Feb 05 '23

Arizona cities are also pretty efficient when it comes to water use. I believe Arizona resident use the same amount of water now as they did in the 50’s, and that’s with a growth of 5 million people. But the state just has too many damn farms. It’s great that the native Americans figured out that the soil is amazing for growing crops here, but not to the extent that it’s currently being done. Plus, no part of the state is moving towards more modern farming techniques.

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u/MisterSergeant Feb 05 '23

Their plan isn't to reduce or improve agriculture, but to build a fucking pipeline from the Mississippi, lmao

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u/cultured_banana_slug Feb 06 '23

It's like watching an addict stab at their desiccating veins.

Humanity: "Maybe this one! STAB*"

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u/Aggressive_Flight241 Feb 06 '23

It’s more akin to addict scraping the empty bag for the 10th time hoping that the flakes building up in the spoon are more than just glassine paper.

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u/jbcmh81 Feb 06 '23

The Mississippi was drying up last year too.

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u/quietdisaster Feb 06 '23

We have our own ecologies to protect. I think I speak for the Midwest when I tell them to go pound sand.

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u/nubicmuffin39 Feb 06 '23

I’d rather hug a saguaro than let the SW pipe from the great lakes

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u/Biosterous Feb 06 '23

Good news! If they keep up their current water usage levels, they'll have plenty of sand to pound.

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u/Aazadan Feb 05 '23

Farming techniques are a big one. Hydroponic farming, like they do in Japan, is not only space efficient, eliminates the need for many (any?) pesticides, can grow all year round, and uses about 1% of the water of traditional farming.

The tradeoff being that not all plants are suited to that system of growing, and that farmers more or less refuse to adopt it since it's too expensive to set up without government assistance, meaning legislators have to be willing to do it as well.

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u/RAF2018336 Feb 06 '23

None of the legislators want to cuz they all have money in the agriculture business

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u/alexmikli Feb 06 '23

But agriculture in those states will be extremely unprofitable soon if they don't fix it now

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u/RAF2018336 Feb 06 '23

Yea but they’ll be the ones that have the money to put into the next profitable thing

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u/007meow Feb 05 '23

Vegas does a fantastic job with its water resourcing/reclamation.

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u/Brs76 Feb 05 '23

The Ogallala aquifer will

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u/W4ffle3 Feb 05 '23

Tl;dr: the Southwest is fucked, especially Arizona.

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u/JoeBoredom Feb 05 '23

It's a desert, they don't need Kentucky bluegrass lawns, irrigated corn and alfalfa fields, dairy cows, bazillions of people that only come out at night.

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u/Coulrophiliac444 Feb 05 '23

Or Saudi open flow valves for the aforementioned alfalfa. Singlehandedly the biggest drain in the region, amd bigger than most cities IIRC.

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u/natphotog Feb 06 '23

Agriculture uses something like 80% of the water in the region. But it’s totally the residents fault for taking longer than 3 minute showers.

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u/otherwisemilk Feb 06 '23

Maybe a desert isn't a great place for agriculture.

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u/Redqueenhypo Feb 06 '23

You can do agriculture in the desert, you just have to grow actual desert crops. Olives are extremely profitable and dates are just good, there’s a reason everyone grew those in the Middle East before modern irrigation practices

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u/Helenium_autumnale Feb 06 '23

Why aren't we growing olives and dates in Arizona? California used to grow dates.

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u/jwm3 Feb 06 '23

California still grows dates. Lots of date shakes in the central valley.

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u/FabiusBill Feb 06 '23

Checkout the work of Desert Harvesters. They're doing good work with native edibles and other plants, like mesquite.

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u/usualsuspect45 Feb 06 '23

No, its actually a great place for it. Who knew? AZ has no regulations at all on it. Big farms can run wild out there and suck as much water out of the ground as they want.

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u/otherwisemilk Feb 06 '23

Sounds like a terrible place to live.

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u/usualsuspect45 Feb 06 '23

Yea, if I owned property there, I would be selling like yesterday. Hard to live w/o water.

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u/sainttawny Feb 06 '23

Sell their houses to WHO, BEN! FUCKING SANDMAN?!

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u/Truffles326 Feb 06 '23

To Republicans who don't believe in Climate Change???

I'd feel owned

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u/Guy_Fieris_Hair Feb 06 '23

As someone who lives in Arizona, there is nowhere to live and there is a massive housing shortage. If I chose to sell it would be gone before it posted anywhere. However I am committed to a job and family here, so if I sold I would have to find somewhere else to live in this insane housing bubble.

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u/AndySocial88 Feb 06 '23

 Do not, my friends, become addicted to water. It will take hold of you, and you will resent its absence!

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u/takingthehobbitses Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

It actually baffles me that we have people moving here in droves and buying 700k+ dollar homes. Not only are most of those homes not worth anywhere near that amount but this is probably not going to be someplace that people want to live in 10-20 years. It’s not sustainable for how many millions of people are here. I’m about to get out.

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u/Vindicare605 Feb 06 '23

The worst part is, when their version of the dust bowl happens and the crisis gets to a certain point the state will need federal bailout money to sort it out. Bailout money funded by tax payers from other states, while the people who made all of the money exploiting the lack of regulations have long made off with their profits.

It's stupid as fuck.

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u/mr_birkenblatt Feb 06 '23

how much money do you make while showering? /s

EDIT: or the even worse take: how many people do you feed while showering? /s

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u/Dizman7 Feb 06 '23

Well that’s the thing, all those water wasting crops in AZ only account for 2-3% of the state’s annual GDP yet use 80% of the states water annnually.

And the alfalfa isn’t feeding anyone, it’s being shipped back to the Middle East to feed their cows. Because they were smart enough to ban the growing of such water intensive crops in the desert in their own countries!

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u/worrymon Feb 06 '23

how much money do you make while showering

Check out my onlyfans

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u/pembquist Feb 06 '23

People?! We are talking Horses, THOROUGHBREDS for god's sake, how many have you fed, peasant.

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u/MoufFarts Feb 06 '23

To quote Blazing Saddles… “Horses! Horses are too damn expensive. Round up a couple of…” On second thought, maybe not a good line to quote.

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u/chaosperfect Feb 06 '23

"I said the Sheriff is a *DING!"*

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u/Archaris Feb 06 '23

If only it their state politics weren't ran by wealthy lobbyist-types from the 9th green.

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u/meat_tunnel Feb 06 '23

Utah's governor is literally an alfalfa farm owner.

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u/viciouspandas Feb 06 '23

Politicians should be banned from owning businesses larger than a small restaurant

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u/bukakerooster Feb 06 '23

Us Arizonans are doing what we can. Tight votes to get two Dem senators (well, we thought Sinema was a Dem when we voted at least). Got a governor and sec of state barely into office last election too. The state legislature is gerrymandered like crazy and that is even down to a single seat GoP majority.

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u/k0uch Feb 05 '23

I grew up in southwest Texas, middle of the desert. I remember hiking with some friends south of Valentine, and running into what was obviously remnants of irrigated crops. My friends grandpa told us about how Kellogg’s had corn grown there in the 50s, but when the water levels dropped they moved on.

I started going to Google earth and looking around, and there’s tons of irrigation setups out here. Far more than I thought we could ever possibly supply

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u/recumbent_mike Feb 06 '23

As it turns out, you were right about that.

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u/dreneeps Feb 06 '23

Kellogg's: "Well... Time to go find another aquifer somewhere else to deplete."

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u/ahecht Feb 05 '23

All household use combined is less than 6% of total water use, so lawns have a negligible effect. As you said, it's the 1/3 of all water in the western US that's used to grow cattle feed that's the real problem.

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u/jenacious Feb 06 '23

I still get pretty fucking irritated when I see people watering their sidewalks.

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u/Reverend-Cleophus Feb 06 '23

That IS very irrigating

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u/bros402 Feb 06 '23

....why are they watering their sidewalks?

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u/Aetherimp Feb 06 '23

How else are they supposed to grow?

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u/cultured_banana_slug Feb 06 '23

Arizona is going to hit up hard against reality in the next 50 years.

Reality doesn't give a fuck if you believe in climate change. You're still going to run out of water and see 130 degree days anyway.

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u/Zaorish9 Feb 06 '23

Reality doesn't give a fuck if you believe in climate change.

I recently watched the 1961 sci-fi film "the day the earth caught fire" and it was amazing how much of the stuff they predicted has happened to us recently.

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u/Zombie_Harambe Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

There is a paper from industrial revolution Europe about the hundreds of billions of tons of coal burned every year, and the effects all that co2 might have on the environment. Their timeline is off a few decades, but its disturbing how scientists in the late 1800s could with relative accuracy predict the downfalls of a heavily industrialized society.

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u/SkiingAway Feb 06 '23

There's a proposed desalination plant in Mexico and either outright piping that water to Arizona, or AZ paying to run it and giving the output to Mexico in exchange for that much water from Mexico's Colorado River allocation.

I'm not suggesting that project will necessarily happen, but something along those lines will if they actually need water. The price isn't cheap, but it's also nothing particularly insurmountable - at least from the perspective of residential usage. A lot of agriculture likely wouldn't be financially viable on desalination, but....it probably shouldn't be.

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u/rawonionbreath Feb 05 '23

The interesting thing will be to see how long the denial lasts.

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u/guns_mahoney Feb 06 '23

Until a major area turns on their taps and nothing comes out

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u/captainhaddock Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

There were anti-vaxxers denying vaccines and the seriousness of covid right to their dying breath in the hospital, so I would not underestimate humanity's willingness to self-destruct in order to perpetuate its own tribal ideologies.

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u/pegothejerk Feb 05 '23

Me and my wife went to an outdoor bar when Covid lockdowns first lifted, had to get out, we sat away from everyone else to be as safe as possible. Some dude from out of town who already had a table and half empty beer bellies up to our table and begins telling us about his life, how the pandemic is fake and overblown, how climate change is bs, he’s spitting his beer on us, and eventually lands on the fact that he’s headed out to Arizona where he bought land site unseen so he can live off the grid. I asked him if he’s had anyone go out there to test the water or check to see how close the nearest clean water is known to be. He sorta mocked me and started telling us about all the investments he made to get that money for the land and how he’s gonna retire out there now after blowing it all on the spread and some home he’s having shipped out there. I wonder how bad he regrets buying that land these days.

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u/LiMoTaLe Feb 05 '23

People like this don't experience regrets.

They only experience blame.

Every asinine conclusion when disproven is displaced by a new even crazier assertion

Rinse and repeat

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u/MitsyEyedMourning Feb 05 '23

Knew a guy, we met time to time. Conservative, gun worshiper but city variety. Got tired of all the libs he worked with and decided after a couple half ass trades to go FT day trader. He basically made rounds to just about everyone in his field telling them off in sordid fashion... he basically black balled himself as he did this.

Lost his fucking ass day trading. House, car, his families money along with his. Ostracized both personally and professionally.

Moved out to Arizona after scraping some cash together. I wonder what militia he joined sometimes

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u/markh2111 Feb 05 '23

Day trades, gimme a break. They'll crow about their occasional wins but won't say shit about their many, many losses.

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u/drokihazan Feb 06 '23

I tried to day trade as a hobby. I lost so much money I'm still claiming it on my taxes as capital losses years later. Not done yet this year either. Or next year.

I sucked at it. I feel like maybe everyone who isn't a computer sucks at it and if they say otherwise, assume lies.

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u/ItsAllegorical Feb 06 '23

I did some day trading years ago. I won relatively big on a good MSFT earnings call I had every reason to believe was going to do well. I think I made about 5k and got the hell out, realizing it was luck as much as anything. Then my taxes were all fucky and I wasn’t even all that happy about my win.

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u/Aazadan Feb 05 '23

Then they'll blame taxes on making it impossible to make a living, because those taxes are preventing them from taking risks.

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u/calypsopub Feb 06 '23

The male equivalent of becoming a Boss Babe and selling Monat or LuLaRoe.

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u/lensupthere Feb 05 '23

We aerial image map from manned aircraft over Arizona a few times a year. We fly over these “off grid“ sites. They are barely developed, usually camper-trailers next to the one or two trees that can provide shade.

There is no water visible from the air. No noticeable wells. There are patterns in the land that show where washouts occur if rain falls elsewhere. No low shrub or grasses greenery at all. Maybe a tiny solar panel.

It’s quite stark and we never see human activity. Even in the areas where there are higher concentrations - a grid of “off grid” neighbors - there’s no activity.

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u/Neuchacho Feb 06 '23

I wonder how long it takes for someone to realize you're dead out there. And when you are, what does anyone do about it?

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u/Skellum Feb 06 '23 Silver

There's a documentary called Tremors that details the average kind of life for people like this. I highly recommend it.

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u/Zombie_Harambe Feb 06 '23

IIrc it follows a vietnam vet as he and his wife struggle to assist a town unprepared for the harsh desert climate and deadly ecology.

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u/QuickAltTab Feb 06 '23

And when you are, what does anyone do about it?

break out the metal detector to find where they buried their stash of gold or silver while you munch on some of their MREs before you call the local authorities to alert them of the mummified corpse

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u/postal-history Feb 06 '23

There was a NYT story about his type recently. "Unincorporated community" in AZ, consisting of comfy suburbs, no utilities and no taxes, was purchasing extra water from a nearby municipal utility, then got cut off due to the drought. They don't pay any municipal taxes so there's no way for them to restore the water whatsoever. Every single house in the development is now dry. Oops

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u/MagicPistol Feb 06 '23

Driving through Central California, you see a lot of farms with signs up blaming Newsom for water problems.

That dude is probably gonna do the same thing and blame democrats and liberals for all the water problems. But climate change isn't real.

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u/jumperalex Feb 05 '23

Sold my Vegas rental condo dec 2021 at the trough of interest rates and peak of prices. Best decision I ever made. So glad I got out.

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u/atx2004 Feb 05 '23

Did the same in Austin. Water levels are extremely low in Lake Travis.

https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/individual/travis

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u/julbull73 Feb 06 '23

Outside of Phoenix yep.

Phoenix though is ok. Barring a governor being an idiot. Phoenix gets most of its water from the salt river. It predominantly is fed by seasonal rains aka hurricanes. Its growing.

But the rest of Az.. yeah. But the massive chunk of the population lives in Az is in Phoenix.

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u/tyriancomyn Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

Hurricanes? You mean to say 'monsoons'.

Also, the Colorado river is still 2nd largest supplier of water to Phoenix, via the Central Arizona Project. ~50% of their water comes from the Salt River Project, which is great, but losing the Colorado as a source would be really challenging for a city that continues to grow in severe drought conditions.

https://www.phoenix.gov/waterservices/resourcesconservation/yourwater

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u/clumpymascara Feb 06 '23

Don't worry guys, sometime soon you'll get some "one in a thousand year" floods and fill them back up. And then it'll keep raining and keep flooding because there's nowhere for the water to go.

Sincerely, Australia

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u/rainbowbubblegarden Feb 06 '23

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u/clumpymascara Feb 06 '23

I mean yes but also more widespread in location and duration than this article states. Town of Eugowra got wiped out in a flash flood in November.

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u/nascentt Feb 06 '23

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u/Alternate_Ending1984 Feb 06 '23

That page is ridiculously well done.

The formatting and presentation is chefs kiss

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u/particleman3 Feb 05 '23

Alfalfa and other cattle feed, and then the cattle themselves use 50% of ALL of the Colorado river basin water output every year.

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u/analyticaljoe Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

The Daily from the NYT had a great pod cast on this. Might be paywalled but explains the deadlock.

FWIW, I learned that "dead pool" means a dammed river that no longer has enough water that water can flow past the dam.

The really interesting thing is that their models that relate snow in the mountains to water into the rivers have broken. So they can no longer predict when Lake Mead or Lake Powell will dead pool.

The other interesting thing was the discussion of who uses what water. Nevada does not use that much. It's really CA vs. AZ where CA has the law on their side, AZ is arguing "reason".

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u/justiceboner34 Feb 06 '23

I read that article. There's a treaty establishing water rights between the states of the southwest on the Colorado river. Arizona agreed to a minority share and now that agreement is costing them dearly. That's why they are trying to get CA and the other states to see "reason" as you indicate. AZ is at the mercy of its neighbors.

The desert may reclaim itself in the next 75 years or so.

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u/The-link-is-a-cock Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

It's really CA vs AZ where CA has the law on their side, AZ is arguing reason

And with all their irresponsible farming neither have nature or proper resource management on their side

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u/[deleted] Feb 05 '23

This explains how water in the Southwest is used.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0gN1x6sVTc

As much as people like talking shit about people choosing to live in the desert, or people wasting their water on swimming pools or golf courses, that's all basically irrelevant.

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u/StopTheMineshaftGap Feb 05 '23

Great video- I knew alfalfa was a big culprit, but not the biggest. Also likely due to the fact that they can cultivate all year round.

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u/[deleted] Feb 06 '23 Silver

[deleted]

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u/PressOnRegardless_IV Feb 06 '23

That's some catch, that Catch-22.

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u/HaveSpouseNotWife Feb 06 '23

It’s the best there is.

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u/dream_weasel Feb 06 '23

So why not... Grow alfalfa and raise cattle in other places?

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u/[deleted] Feb 06 '23

Because when you already own the land and have deeded water rights, you get to tell everybody else to fuck off.

It's a mess.

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u/donkeyrocket Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

Aside from the points that companies/farms are established and already doing it, the Western US, when heavily supplemented with irrigation, has a longer growing season than elsewhere.

You could more sustainably grow alfalfa in parts of the Midwest but the major drawback is those areas still see medium to harsh winters where you're not getting 9 out of 12 month yields.

From a pure economic/profit standpoint, it is cheaper to grow these crops in basically inhospitable areas than it is to take the hit and grow it more sustainably elsewhere. An extra month or two of product to sell makes the environmental cost worth it. Companies will eventually shift when that bottom line is affected but it will continue to be profit-driven and environmentally predatory.

"Water scarcity" is going to be the first major domino to fall before we see very rapid decline in production from every industry. Everything is going to devolve quite quickly from there.

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u/crabman484 Feb 05 '23 edited Feb 05 '23

You can post as many facts about the water crisis as you want, but people on Reddit are still going to believe that the only way to solve the water crisis is to nuke Phoenix.

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u/vettes_4-ever Feb 06 '23

nuke Phoenix

"Hey, did it just get cooler and darker for a second there?" - Average Phoenix resident.

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u/DanTheMan-WithAPlan Feb 05 '23 Silver

Oh it’s absolutely clear that alfalfa and other crops use >80% of the water, but phoenix should not exist as it’s a monument to man’s arrogance

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u/canuckcowgirl Feb 05 '23

The early rumblings of the Great Water Wars of the 2030's.

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u/1ilypad Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

Great Water Wars of the 2030's

Horizon Forbidden West called it the "Hot Zone Crisis". Where the federal government tried to evacuate most of the southwest after water sources dried up. It was a humanitarian disaster and sparked a small war between militia members and the US government. It sounds 100% like what would happen irl too.

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u/sandm000 Feb 06 '23

If there is no water there and the people don’t voluntarily move, won’t it sort itself out in short order? The remaining people will live with or find ways to live with the reduced amount of water. Why would they need to be moved by force?

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u/1ilypad Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

After the federal order to evacuate the area, many did leave. Often into poorly run camps that echoed the federal response to Katrina or elsewhere in the country if they could afford it. Others didn't want to leave their land and banded together and found ways to adapt to the rising temps and lack of water in the "hot zone". Wealthier residents in the region also funded the establishment of a militia force to defend the people that stayed there.

The federal government didn't like their orders being ignored and eventually decided to forcibly remove those that remained for their own good despite the residents having found ways to survive. Which sparked the Crisis. With many people being sent to harsh prison like concentration camps. The militia force went to war against the Federal government to stop them.

There was a corruption aspect too. Where corps and federal government had interests in the rare earth minerals under privately owned land in the region. The world was undergoing a resource crisis and they needed those minerals for their robot army and tech.

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u/ZeBootygoon Feb 06 '23

The Horizon universe exists because the world's governments made shit choices when it comes to "humanitarian" policies. Also, companies making robots that run on biomass buuuutttt...

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u/Vandergrif Feb 06 '23

Gonna get real awkward in Canada, what with all that fresh water and relatively few people spread across vast distances.

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u/canuckcowgirl Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

Yes. Canada has upwards of 20% of the world's fresh water.

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u/EnglishDutchman Feb 05 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

Here in Utah our governor Spencer Cocks Cox has proclaimed that he believes God will refill the Great Salt Lake.

So we’re all good

/s

Obviously.

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u/LUNA_underUrsaMajor Feb 06 '23

Utah also thinks cutting down million of acres of trees in the desert is a good idea

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u/joeyasaurus Feb 06 '23

Ah yes, speed up desertification!

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u/OtherAcctWasBanned11 Feb 06 '23

Come on now, he's focusing on more important things, like banning trans kids from getting healthcare and playing sports. /s in case that's not clear

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u/Tessst1 Feb 06 '23

conservative radio here in LA always say, "it will rain eventually so dont worry."

conservatives lack of foresight and planning blows my mind.

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u/ScampersInATuxedo Feb 06 '23

The western water supply issue is literally the same issue of global gases in which those who own the majority of the money will turn and blame the "little folks" for their usage and demand they change, which will do absolutely nothing to stop the issue.

It's not lawns, showers, corporations, or washing a car.

It's farming.

This drainage, much like pollution from big oil, was well known as water certificates were being drafted.

Everyone knew there was a finite amount of water.

Everyone didn't give a shit because of money.

Now it's a problem, and of course, it'll take money to fix it.

Greed will kill the human race.

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u/emaw63 Feb 05 '23

“This is the worst water crisis I’ve ever seen!”

“No, this is the worst water crisis that you’ve seen so far

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u/CynicalPomeranian Feb 05 '23

I can’t help but wonder if a looming “once in a thousand year” flood crisis is going to fill the lakes, but kill a lot of people…because that would just be par for the course.

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u/phoenix0r Feb 06 '23

There is evidence of a torrential flood in California that replenishes the ground water and aquifers all across the Central Valley that happens every 135 years or so, like clockwork, for the last few millennia. We’re due for another one in about 15 years, which lines up with about when we’ll run out of the existing supply.

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u/xtraspcial Feb 06 '23

Only difference is that now California will be diverting as much of that water as possible into the ocean to protect population centers, so who knows what will actually happen.

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u/engr77 Feb 06 '23

The issue with that is how much of the ground has been made impermeable over just the last few decades. We have the same issue in Houston where most of the ground was spongy marsh once upon a time, but now there is a pathetically tiny amount of retention pond space that ultimately diverts basically all storm water straight to the Gulf.

That's assuming those spaces don't overflow and flood buildings first.

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u/janjinx Feb 05 '23

Lake Meade is the largest man-made reservoir in the US and has to supply water to millions of Americans - yes this is serious!

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u/PorygonTriAttack Feb 06 '23

America is the land of the rich. Corporations are leeching off this earth while giving very little back. I truly wonder how much tax has been given back to the people that they profitted off of.

America has a major accountability issue. It's weird how climate change is the responsibility of the public, while they don't actually profit from it in any way. Those fat CEOs, shareholders, and other bigwigs do. The politicians just roll out the red carpet for them.

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u/jayfeather31 Feb 05 '23

It's only going to get worse from here, I'm afraid.

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u/USCplaya Feb 06 '23

Here in Utah, farmers use 87% of all the water used in the state. ALL cities and citizens use 9%.... The executive director of natural resources for Utah is a farmer and has switched to drip tape, he said it reduced his use by 50-60%. If all the farmers would just make that switch, we'd be in one hell of a better position.

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u/ExplodeBaer Feb 06 '23

Check out the organization Fill Mead First. Basically their stance is say screw lake Powell, empty it and fill up Lake Mead. In doing so, get back beautiful Glen Canyon that was lost when Powell was created and get an actual functioning reservoir with a full lake Mead. As an Edward Abbey fan, I’m all for it, would love to be able to see Glen Canyon again!

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u/ApplesBananasRhinoc Feb 06 '23

80% of that water goes to grow stuff in a desert. I know that's pretty cool to have sunlight 360 days per year for a neverending growing season, but maybe it's not the brightest idea any more.

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u/dlewis23 Feb 06 '23 edited Feb 06 '23

At this point Lake Powell should be drained and the dam removed, this will fill up lake Mead. There is no reason to keep delaying the inevitable.

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u/FireRotor Feb 06 '23

Lake Powell should never have been. Drain it now, let Mead fill and generate power closer to where it’s needed.

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u/banality_of_ervil Feb 06 '23

Cadillac Desert outlined all of this back in the 80's. We've known how bad we're fucking up for so long and have done nothing