r/dataisbeautiful OC: 1 Oct 04 '21 I'll Drink to That 1 Helpful (Pro) 1 Silver 16 Gold 3 Helpful 16 Wholesome 12 Hugz 6 All-Seeing Upvote 2

[OC] Total Fertility Rate of Currently Top 7 Economies | 200 Years OC

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24.8k Upvotes

u/dataisbeautiful-bot OC: ∞ Oct 05 '21

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5.6k

u/Cleve_eddie Oct 04 '21 Helpful All-Seeing Upvote

A zoom out at the end might show a nice summary.

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u/alionBalyan OC: 1 Oct 04 '21

thanks for the idea, I'd try it next time.

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u/mike-droughp Oct 05 '21

Killer job on this OP I definitely learned something here.

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u/Junkererer Oct 05 '21 edited Oct 05 '21 Wholesome

I'm still surprised at people still not knowing that fertility rates have been decreasing across the board for years, thinking that the population is growing exponentially as if the world didn't change in 30 years

People still believing that 'we have too many kids' when the population is already stagnating or about to decrease in basically every continent other than Africa, also considering that the population in western countries is kept slightly higher and younger through immigration

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u/LeCuntyChiot Oct 05 '21

A decrease across the board with a massive decrease in child mortality doesn't necessarily lead to any decrease in population.

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u/Artanthos Oct 05 '21 edited Oct 05 '21

You need 2.1 to maintain a steady population in a modern society.

Anything less results in a natural population decline unless you are getting more people from somewhere else, i.e. immigrants.

A natural population decline has its own problems. Today’s societies are structured with the assumption that each generation will be larger than the last. Systems like retirement security and senior healthcare start falling apart if that assumption fails. It can also result in a contraction in the countries production, and GDP is what currencies are based on.

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u/emmeneggerart Oct 05 '21

There’s also a system shock when the population of people past retirement starts to become a bigger and bigger portion of the population. They still consume and thus need modern industries, but there’s less and less people to do the work. Leading to a labor shortage.

Theoretically it’d balance itself out after more people from the bigger generations pass on, but modern medicine will make that take longer and longer, as morbid as that sounds.

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u/chairfairy Oct 05 '21 All-Seeing Upvote

Arguably the world's population is still too big, and "stagnating" population is one of the ways to decrease the pressure on the natural resources

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u/Mikesminis Oct 05 '21

Very nice. It'd be cool to see with landmark events, like world wars the do great depression, the Magi revolution, advent of birth control, child birth policies, and so on.

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u/DeezNeezuts Oct 05 '21 edited Oct 05 '21 Silver

This was well done. Add “Bow Chika Wow Wow”music as well next time.

*seventies porno music - maybe I spelled it out wrong…

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u/RVAEMS399 Oct 05 '21

It seems a pull out at the end is the summary.

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u/Zorcron Oct 05 '21

I feel like this data overall would just be better overall as a static line graph. It would be much easier to see trends on a single plot rather than scrubbing through an almost 3 minute long video.

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u/princealiiiii Oct 05 '21

All these animated graphs should be multiseries line graphs. All the information can be in one image.

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u/BBQCHICKENALERT Oct 05 '21

it's shocking to me how even with the 1 child policy, China's birth rate was still higher than Japan and Germany's throughout that period. .

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u/Kered13 Oct 05 '21

The One Child Policy was never consistently applied in rural parts of the country, that's why the fertility rate never actually drops to 1.

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u/YOBlob Oct 05 '21

Also didn't apply to ethnic minorities.

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u/Mefaso Oct 05 '21 edited Oct 05 '21

Minorities were only allowed two children instead and make up less than 10% of the population.

They're probably not the deciding factor

Edit: /u/earthlingkevin points out that this is incorrect:

For certain ethnic minorities and people in rural areas, the limit was 5.

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u/YOBlob Oct 05 '21

I have no idea what the exact breakdown was between rural populations, ethnic minorities, and whatever other exemptions, but this from Wikipedia is interesting:

Thus, the term "one-child policy" has been called a "misnomer", because for nearly 30 of the 36 years that it existed (1979–2015), about half of all parents in China faced instead a two-child limit

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy

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u/slator_hardin Oct 05 '21

Then it was the 1.5 child policy, assuming that every single couple maxed out their limit (which is not very likely). Still enough, over 36 year, to lead to demographic collapse

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u/Seytoux Oct 05 '21

Thanks for the answer I came to look for in the comments, also conveniently high

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u/thatdoesntmakecents Oct 05 '21

Also not sure if people know but the one-child policy was just a fine/levy you had to pay for giving bith to more than one child. People who could afford it weren't really stopped by it.

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u/mr_ji Oct 05 '21

It wasn't even a fine. It was reduced state support. If you were rich and paying for your kid's healthcare and schooling anyway, it didn't matter. People make it sound like second children were pariahs, when in fact they signaled that a family had wealth much of the time.

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u/ds580 Oct 05 '21

I believe the penalty was a fine so rich families may have as many children as they want also.

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u/taisun93 Oct 05 '21

That was only after the market reforms where you could hold private sector jobs. If you were a government employee you could be fired for violating the policy

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u/earthlingkevin Oct 05 '21

China's one child policy only applies to around 50% of population.

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u/Skuggomann Oct 05 '21

Imagine if China had kept going at that rate, the Chinese part of a world population pie chart would have looked like PacMan.

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u/MozeeToby Oct 05 '21

Right up until the inevitable famine the first growing season where things don't go 100% according to plan. No way China consistently feeds 3 billion citizens in the long term.

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u/molossus99 Oct 05 '21

Japan’s fucked.. stupid low birth rate combined with basically zero immigration. Going to be a society of octogenarians in short order.

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u/ArnoF7 Oct 05 '21 edited Oct 05 '21

China’s fertility rate is lower than Japan now according to newest census. Japan’s fertility rate is actually the higher one among East Asian countries. China, SK, Hong Kong, Macao, Singapore all have lower fertility rate than Japan. Not sure about Taiwan but I would expect it to be similar. It’s an interesting era we are entering that countries like Japan or Germany who face severe population aging for many years are actually the better ones on fertility rate

And the newest data of China was released after a month long delay. There were some speculation that the actual data is shockingly bad (probably the lowest in the world) so they had to do some fixing to make it looks better. Ironically, the released data is still in a very very bad spot, like the lowest 10 or 20 countries in the world

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u/artthoumadbrother Oct 05 '21 edited Oct 05 '21

The same is actually true of a lot of countries....including China, Germany, Russia, most of the developed world, really, other than the US, France, NZ, and Sweden. Japan is just a little ahead of the curve.

When it comes to demographic busts, it's also good to keep in mind that immigration is a band-aid, not a solution. Immigrants to the developed world, especially, tend to be young men in their 20s/30s---that isn't what you need to stabilize demographics. In a society with a kinda low birthrate, but not super low, like in the United States in much of the late 20th century, massive immigration can smooth things out. But when you're looking demographic collapse in the eye, as much of the world currently is, you just can't fix that by importing new citizens.

This is happening. Governments are going to have to figure out how to pay for the pensions, healthcare, etc. required by heretofore unheard of populations of retirees who are supported by an ever shrinking pool of productive workers. It's odd to me that this problem isn't more well known, given that our societies all function on the idea of perpetual growth. If you can keep population steady, as long as you continue to innovate you'll still get growth, but steady population isn't the world we're facing. Scary stuff.

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u/applebusch Oct 05 '21

I feel like the people in power are the ones about to be those old retired people, and "fuck you got mine" is the political sentiment of the day. My theory is that these demographic issues and very low birth rates is a result of increased education and quality of life accompanied by a relative decrease in financial opportunity in general. People know what it costs to raise a kid these days, but wage stagnation and increasing housing costs means most people don't have the means, and thus choose to take measures to prevent pregnancy. In that case the only people having kids are those who don't care, are well off and can afford it, or who have them on accident. The old, rich, and powerful don't care because they made this situation worse in order to increase their profits. By the time they need extra care they will still be able to afford it, hence "fuck you got mine".

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u/Oddsee Oct 05 '21

Bingo. The geriatrics in charge don't give a shit.

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u/Paradoltec Oct 05 '21

It's why they pushing automation advances to hard. Their xenophobia means their only solution to demographic collapse is to automate society to the point that work force demographics stop mattering.

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u/zsdrfty Oct 05 '21

Japan will accidentally invent fully automated luxury communism

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u/Xciv Oct 05 '21

I'm here for it. Give me this timeline now.

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u/enddream Oct 05 '21

Don’t steal my band name!

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u/SeegurkeK Oct 05 '21

Not even gay and in space? smh

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u/-Skelitor- Oct 04 '21

Can someone smart explain why China is all over the place from ≈1960 - 1985??

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u/CMCliff Oct 05 '21

There was also a short period before the 1 child policy where they encouraged huge families. “Do it for your country” type of thing.

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u/LanceFree Oct 05 '21 Silver

Don't know if I could perform with all that pressure.

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u/A-Dumb-Ass Oct 05 '21

It was snu-snu, death or death by snu-snu kind of time.

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u/vish_the_fish Oct 05 '21

The spirit is willing, but the flesh is bruised and tender.

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u/Hexpod Oct 05 '21

The one child policy was enacted in 1979. According to this chart, is might have actually increased the birth rate in the following decade.

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u/reverend-mayhem Oct 05 '21

Haha “Do it… for your country”

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u/HumanToaster Oct 05 '21

Recently a travel company did a whole marketing spiel on that concept here in Denmark. "Do it for Denmark" aka "go travel, have sex, get kids". It was quite brilliant lol.

https://youtu.be/vrO3TfJc9Qw

https://youtu.be/yChZnXuB2ls

https://youtu.be/ZHNBVzYk5gA

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u/Redditsoldestaccount Oct 04 '21

Cultural revolution and then the one child policy

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u/Mikehemi529 Oct 05 '21

China's wild ride

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u/I_PM_U_UR_REQUESTS Oct 05 '21

I want to get off Mr. Mao’s Wild Ride

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u/Mikehemi529 Oct 05 '21

The Chairman says NO.

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u/Xciv Oct 05 '21 edited Oct 05 '21 Hugz

Famine caused a huge dip in fertility in 1958, then it pingponged back up because of propaganda extolling the benefits of having lots of kids so China can 'outnumber' the 'Western Imperialists'. The propaganda basically went like, "we won the Korean War because we outnumbered the Americans. Therefore for China to be strong and protect itself, we must leverage manpower, China's great strength, and have as many kids as possible."

Then the CCP realized this was a terrible idea economically as families could not support so many kids and this stretched budgets thin in families. They then instituted the One Child Policy to correct this, but the policy coincided with the rapid modernization and enormous increase in wealth and the middle class. So a natural decrease in fertility was accelerated with an artificial decrease in fertility for a double whammy, landing them in a potential demographic crisis that hasn't played out yet. China's fertility should be a bit lower than India's, not on-par with First World Nations. Recently they abolished the One Child Policy to try to course correct.

My grandma lived through all this.

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u/AsthmaticMechanic Oct 04 '21

Great Leap Forward: idiocy induced famine that killed more people than WWI.

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u/Kered13 Oct 05 '21

Followed by a rebound, then the one child policy.

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u/entotheenth Oct 05 '21

Shouldn’t the one child policy drop the rate to 0.5

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u/Coomb Oct 05 '21

Total fertility rate is births per woman so it would drop to 1 with a one birth per woman policy rather than a one child policy.

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u/gabotuit Oct 05 '21

Wow at the beginning it was about 7 children per woman in the US, for decades :S

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u/scarabic Oct 05 '21

7 children per woman

No no — births. Remember that a big reason people used to have so many babies is that quite a few didn’t make it. With poor medicine and fewer vaccines, many more died before their childhoods were over.

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u/Mescallan Oct 05 '21

That doesn't mean all 7 survived. Victorian times had about 60% child mortality.

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u/manitobot Oct 05 '21

Wow, in that case humanity has come a long way.

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u/Geistbar Oct 05 '21

High birth rates are also heavily linked with high infant mortality rates. The more likely an individual's children are to survive, the fewer children they will seek to have.

The collapse in fertility rates across the developed world is a consequence of the immense decline in infant mortality and immense increase in general quality of life for a non-wealthy individual.

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u/iceman0486 Oct 05 '21

If you look at old graveyards there will be a lot of “Baby So-and-so” in there. That’s because most people didn’t name the baby until a little later - don’t want to waste the good names until you feel like the kid is gonna make it.

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u/manitobot Oct 05 '21

Yeah, that makes sense, improving rates in Sudan has actually changed traditions of naming the baby later.

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u/Albuscarolus Oct 05 '21

That’s what it takes to colonize a continent

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u/Vic18t Oct 05 '21

Or run a farm or factory before child labor laws were introduced.

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u/Fantastic-Berry-737 OC: 3 Oct 05 '21

The US still has a child labor law exemption for industrial farmwork

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u/Beerbrewing Oct 05 '21

And that's how I got my first job at 13, detasseling corn. I think I made $2.35 an hour.

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u/Xciv Oct 05 '21

And it's also higher than 1.0 because there were many exceptions made. For example rural parents were allowed to have a second if the first was a daughter, to combat the gross tragedy of rural parents killing their infant daughters so they can try to have a son instead. Ethnic minorities were also allowed to have more children.

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u/Virus_98 Oct 05 '21

Also a lot if people hid their second child aswell.

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u/manitobot Oct 05 '21

The one child policy didn't apply to rural areas.

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u/XSavage19X Oct 04 '21

Google "cultural revolution".

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u/RollBos Oct 05 '21

More Great Leap Forward in this case

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u/neodymium1337 Oct 05 '21

State controls the means of reproduction

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u/biff2359 Oct 05 '21 Gold

The lack of variability pre ~1850 tells me there are scarce data for everyone but the UK in that time period.

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u/GameCreeper Oct 05 '21

Going through OP's source and yeah, the data is just poor quality. There's no data except for UK and Sweden until exactly 1800, but it most country it doesn't start to update until 50 years later

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u/cockOfGibraltar Oct 05 '21

Thanks. I was confused why every other country was so stable while the UK kept fluctuating.

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u/hellcat_uk Oct 05 '21

Everyone else: "Stop that immediately"

UK: "Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee"

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u/Lucky_Hooky Oct 05 '21

Just ping-ponging around for shits and gigs

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u/Spork_the_dork Oct 05 '21

Yeah was wondering if that's why everyone's pretty stable throughout the 1800s but UK is just weaving around like it had had about 3 bottles whiskey.

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u/FatWormBlowsaSparky Oct 05 '21

That’d be us Scots. Sorry bout that. <hic>

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u/FoolRegnant Oct 05 '21

Considering the fact that India and Germany weren't even countries at that point, it's not much of a surprise.

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u/cfishlips Oct 04 '21

It is really interesting to think about global events that may have impacted fertility rate for each country.

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u/alionBalyan OC: 1 Oct 04 '21

true, you can tell something bad happened when a line goes crazy

I had to limit the number of countries, otherwise Russian line was all over the place in 19th century

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u/wipeitonthedog Oct 05 '21

May be you could add major events in the graphic. For example you add small vertical lines for the world wars or other major events.

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u/Kered13 Oct 05 '21

World War I is obvious as a noticeable dip and then recovery in the western nations. I don't see as much of a dip for WWII, but the baby boom afterwards is obvious. The Great Leap Forward and One Child Policy are obvious in China.

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u/Archmagnance1 Oct 05 '21

There wasn't much of a dip because for the european nations they didnt really recover to pre-ww1 rates, and france was knocked out of the war in a conscription level capacity that would have limited births extremely quickly.

Japans dipped hard with the start of the Second Sino-Japanese War in 1937 and again after 1944-1955 due to large civilian deaths from the obvious sources and firebombing in tokyo.

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u/kllr Oct 05 '21

Germany didn't have that much of a huuge boom after WWII. With such low birthrates, I'm surprised we still even have any germans and french around.

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u/Aetherpor Oct 05 '21

Germany is just fucking huge before the wars. Germany had 56mil people in 1900, compared to 39 mil in the UK or 38 mil in metropolitan France.

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u/Waitingforadragon Oct 05 '21

Anyone know why France was consistently lower in the 1800s. I can't think of a reason why it would be.

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u/alionBalyan OC: 1 Oct 05 '21

Unlike the rest of Europe, there was no strong population growth in France in the 19th and first half of the 20th century. The birth rate in France diminished much earlier than in the rest of Europe in part because inheritance laws dictated distribution of estates whereas in the UK wealth could be passed to the eldest son or child.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_France#1800_to_20th_century

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u/swinging_on_peoria Oct 05 '21

I don't exactly understand the mechanism here.

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u/bpodgursky8 OC: 1 Oct 05 '21

Families didn't want their farms and businesses fragmented into 4-5 unsustainable parts if they had sons. Risked sons needing to sell off parts of the land and not keep it in the family.

So to keep the business in the family, they stopped at one son.

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u/Jrook Oct 05 '21

What I'm finding very coincidental is how similar France of the 1800s is to china in the great leap forward and warring years before that both resulting in similar controlled births even

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u/littlebobbytables9 Oct 05 '21

If a french person had 5 kids and died, their wealth/land would be split into 5 pieces. In the case of land in particular, these smaller pieces would likely not be as productive as the original- you can't really do farmwork on a tiny parcel like you could on a large farm. This means that the french had an incentive to have fewer kids- that means less ways to split the inheritance, so the more likely that one of the children could continue the family business or whatever. In england where all the wealth/land went to the eldest son there was no danger of splitting it into too small pieces, so there was less incentive to have few kids.

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u/Thebitterestballen Oct 05 '21

It doesn't always prevent population growth... When I visited Kenya, a taxi driver explained to me that his tribe/family followed exactly this tradition. They used to be rich but rich families had lots of children, so after dividing the land he had to sell his small plot and drive a taxi.

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u/littlebobbytables9 Oct 05 '21

The fertility rate of kenya is 3.42 which is exactly spot on for preindustrial france on this graph.

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u/ActiveFrontEnd Oct 05 '21

A policy that really crippled France for centuries. Anyone who has played King's Crusaders III understands the weakness of partition inheritance laws.

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u/MadScientist22 Oct 05 '21

Psh, primogeniture is a crutch for the faint of heart. True glory is found in the crucible of partition!

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u/Anathos117 OC: 1 Oct 05 '21

Particularly given how easy it is to manipulate compared to CK2's gavelkind. Partition is easily worked around by granting a county and its de jure dutchy; partition won't assign non-de jure lower level titles, so your primary heir gets to inherit your entire core domain while the rest of your kids end up with a single holding.

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u/Alpha_Whiskey_Golf Oct 05 '21

I understand some of those words.

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u/trannelnav Oct 05 '21

Just disinherit all unwanted son

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u/King_Neptune07 Oct 05 '21

France with the reverse Uno card at the end

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u/mnilailt Oct 05 '21

Another reason is that France was actually one of the most developed countries in the late 16th and early 17th century and was one of the (if not the) biggest power in Europe during that period, especially culturally. France also had a relatively strong middle class and was incredibly liberal relative to most of the world (as it was essentially the centre stage of the enlightenment and revolutionary/constitutional government). This type of modernisation tends to lead to smaller fertility rates, a trend we can see in first world countries today.

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u/TheBlazingFire123 Oct 05 '21

Yeah if France would have grown like the other European countries it would have over 100m people today

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u/Junkererer Oct 05 '21

I've always wondered if the fact that France stopped being the strongest European power as it was losing its population primacy was a coincidence

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u/loulan OC: 1 Oct 05 '21

People never seem to realize that Germany has a much larger population than France when WW2 started.

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u/kebsox Oct 05 '21

During the peak of France, France people was one quarter of European population. And the 3rd most populate states in the world. Low birthrate lead to a weak colonisation of North America and a decline in French power

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u/lestratege Oct 05 '21

It's not. It's the very reason why France wasn't so dominant in the 19th Century. Other countries just caught up demographically. If you see how big Louis xiv France was compared to Europe, you understand why it took all of Europe to reign it in while it took only Germany in the 20th.

France had three times the population of the UK in 1800 but they're about the same now. And the UK had a lot of emigration in the meantime while France had none.

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u/PurpleBullets Oct 05 '21

Steady as she goes, India. There you go. Now nice, smooth landing….perfect.

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u/ForbiddenBanana69 Oct 05 '21

That's what i was thinking the whole time, didn't even pay attention to the others.

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u/OneVio94 Oct 05 '21

Playing that long game

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u/morganthau Oct 05 '21

With an incredibly diverse , populous and largely still conservative society, any sustainable social change in india that achieves consensus must be extremely gradual - almost imperceptible to those of us who stay here. But somehow, life's really different and better than it was some years ago!

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u/blunt_analysis Oct 05 '21

India post independence has always been slow steady and incredibly consistent

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u/VisibleAct Oct 05 '21

Fun fact: Majority Indian states are below replacement rate

The 2.2 rate in 2019 was mainly because 2 of 3 the largest states had very high fertility rates.

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u/garlic_bread_thief Oct 05 '21

Does that mean most couples are having less than 2 children? So the births are going down?

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u/SmileyFace-_- Oct 05 '21

Well, as long as the fertility rate is above 2.1, total births are going up, but yes, in most parts of India births are going down since its below 2.1

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u/totalsports1 Oct 05 '21

Yes. Since 80s two children was the norm in urban india. It's one children now. But percentage of people living in urban India is not very high. In general families with more than 2 children are very rare these days.

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u/chiragmalik943 Oct 05 '21

2.1 is the replacement rate. That means the population will stay same.

Most states in india is below this number.. that means most people in those states have less than 2 kids. This fertility rate is dropping fast.

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u/fantasyguy1999 Oct 05 '21

Why is the replacement rate 2.1 instead of 2.0?

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u/chiragmalik943 Oct 05 '21

Replacement rate fertility requires each woman to replace herself. According to the CIA World Factbook, there are 107 boys born for every 100 girls. Thus every 100 women need to bear 207 children, on average, in order to produce the 100 girls needed to replace them. Dividing 207 children by 100 women equals 2.07 children per woman, which convention rounds up to 2.1

https://overpopulationisamyth.com/episode-2-2-1-kids-a-stable-population/

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u/-Dev_B- Oct 05 '21

To account for miscarriages and death in infancy and other factors.

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u/aaryan_suthar Oct 05 '21

Yes basically there are 30ish states in india. India 's fertility rate is 2.2. Most states are below 2.0 and only 3 states are above 2.5 (bihar, up, rajasthan).

Good signs overall.

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u/pulkitjain1806 Oct 05 '21

Yeah, delhi has only 1.5 fertility rate, we are living because of people from neighbouring states

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u/AynRandPaulKrugman Oct 05 '21

I'm from Kerala. TFR here is nearly Japan levels.

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u/_Amr_ Oct 05 '21

Which states are those?

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u/hoor_jaan Oct 05 '21

7 states above 2.2 . UP (largest in population) has 3 and Bihar has 3.2 .

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u/elmorose Oct 04 '21

Nice work! What is the smoothing algorithm for the line drawing?

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u/alionBalyan OC: 1 Oct 05 '21

I used a library actually "flourish" :|

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u/JWB1723 Oct 04 '21

Very cool... is infant mortality data available for the same data range? Or at least for 1900 on? Anyway, the series (and the way you portrayed it) really spurs a lot of questions... like the GDP per capita relationship and such. Nice work!

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u/cutelyaware OC: 1 Oct 05 '21

Wealth and child mortality are tightly linked, at least since modern medicine meant that less wealthy parents didn't need to worry quite so much about becoming childless. Same for modern labor saving technologies that meant a worker didn't need to spend half their day just to afford food.

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u/GravityDead Oct 05 '21

India be like: In the end, it doesn't even matter.

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u/PlayaHatinIG-88 Oct 05 '21

India: "Slow and steady win the race."

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u/wrongleveeeeeeer Oct 05 '21

China in the middle of the 20th century is a roller coaster, and not the good kind.

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u/Shillofnoone Oct 05 '21

India has most consistent fall

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u/LEGENDARYKING_ Oct 05 '21

Damn how did india had so consistent rate for so long, other countries were like elastic lol

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u/srinidhikv Oct 05 '21

When India became independent in 1947, average life expectancy was ~32 years. It was not uncommon to lose 50% of your children before they turned 10. When that sort of thing happens, people tend to have 7-8 kids, naturally. After the British left, India could finally improve on its healthcare & that finally started reducing tfr.

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u/Ammu_22 Oct 05 '21

Yup. Can agree. There is a huge difference between my grandparent's era and my parents. My mom is the 6th sibling from the 7 kids that my grandma had. It's crazy even to me how my grandma managed it. Now, my parents only had me and my sister, and people agree now that's the maximum limit.

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u/TagMeAJerk Oct 05 '21

Yup survival rate too is clear

My dad's dad had 7 siblings. 3 made it to adulthood and got married at around 21. Each had 6 kids who all grew up to be adults. Each of them had on average 2 kids, all adults now (25 or older).

And now out of the 36 cousins of this generation, 32 are married of which only 1 has 2 kids and 14 have 1 kid.

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u/SpaceDrifter9 Oct 05 '21

My father-in-law's mother lost all 7 of her children to Cholera. She then bore another 5 of whom my FIL was the youngest.

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u/LEGENDARYKING_ Oct 05 '21

damn TIL

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u/BickDigBoy69 Oct 05 '21

My grandfather had 17 siblings so 18 total. 16 died before turning 10.

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u/mancapturescolour Oct 05 '21 edited Oct 05 '21

Thank you for saying this! 🙏🏼

This is what people need to understand about "overpopulation", and other terms thrown around as poorly veiled anti-immigration rhetoric, for example.

If we can improve quality of life, family sizes will eventually decrease, and the population total will stall at a certain point (11 billion?). In Global Health we talk about the "Child Survival Revolution".

E.g., Professor Hans Rosling (RIP!): https://youtu.be/2LyzBoHo5EI

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u/AynRandPaulKrugman Oct 05 '21

RIP Prof Rosling. One of the biggest optimists of this doomer era.

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u/[deleted] Oct 05 '21 edited Oct 14 '21

[deleted]

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u/LEGENDARYKING_ Oct 05 '21

Yea i guessed

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u/BrilliantRat Oct 05 '21

I bet its lack of data.

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u/rhomboidrex Oct 05 '21

Where did early Germany numbers come from?

Germany literally wasn’t a country for like a third of the time covered.

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u/strategicallusionary Oct 05 '21

I've been trying to figure this out too; was it an amalgamation of numbers from countries that later became?? Like that gets so complex!

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u/rhomboidrex Oct 05 '21

Maybe they just went with Prussia for the beginning. Likewise during WWII does Austria now count as Germany?

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u/yonewredditwhodis Oct 04 '21

I am stupid but do the numbers represent number of children per woman of child bearing age?

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u/alionBalyan OC: 1 Oct 04 '21

this is how OurWorldInData defines it: Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the specified year.

wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate

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u/childofthesun11 Oct 05 '21

Does anyone know what the song/music is? It’s kinda sick 🥶

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u/alionBalyan OC: 1 Oct 05 '21

Cavalry - Aakash Gandhi

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u/RichRaichu5 Oct 05 '21

What boosted Japan around 1908?

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u/Beb_16 Oct 05 '21

Aftermarh of Russo-Japanese War maybe ?

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u/tedchambers1 Oct 05 '21

Probably Japanese people having sex

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u/Fantasic0072striker Oct 05 '21

Oooooh never would have guessed thanks!

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u/AlwaysAngryAndy Oct 05 '21

Did you know that there’s an old Japanese legend that “when you can’t fall asleep at night, it’s because you’re awake”?

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u/megadirk Oct 04 '21

Because of the title all I see is swimming sperm.

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u/alionBalyan OC: 1 Oct 04 '21

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u/Whycanyounotsee Oct 05 '21

Data seems to not be quite accurate. I noticed a lack of dip in 1966 for japan.

https://i.imgur.com/YEGLePe.png

Note that the birth rates for the years before and after 1966 seem to fall in line with what's reported in my source. Just not for 1966.

japan is superstitious so people stopped having babies on this year.

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u/njm1314 Oct 05 '21

What does the UK just have brief periods where they all get super horny and then stop? They were wild.

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u/derega16 Oct 05 '21

Surprisingly, baby boom era wasn't as boom as I thought

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u/mazzicc Oct 05 '21

It went from 2 to almost 4 (I think I saw 3.7). Seems like a decent sized boom.

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u/Madpup70 Oct 05 '21

Man, China was wilding there for a while.

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u/TrumpAllOverMe Oct 05 '21

Pretty sure they aren’t done either

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u/Dapaganator Oct 05 '21

Great job OP, I didn't realize numbers were so low now,,,, i guess the population in these countries is decreasing if the average is under 2, unless their is some other factor?

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u/alionBalyan OC: 1 Oct 05 '21

thanks, yes that's how it seems to be, afaik

all developed countries either have already started decreasing or about to start

most developing countries either have already plateued or about to platue

now, biggest rise is happening in African countries and some underdeveloped parts/countries around the world

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u/SnipesCC OC: 1 Oct 05 '21

I was suprised there wasn't more of a downward trend in the 50s with the invention of the birth control pill, but it looks like it wasn't widely available till the 60s, and there you see a large downturn.

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u/dbarbera Oct 05 '21

They are called baby boomers for a reason

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u/taciuz Oct 05 '21

France be like: 1.8/2.2 oscillating

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u/shrimp-and-potatoes Oct 05 '21

I didn't realize India's birthrate had dropped so much.

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u/shuklaprajwal4 Oct 05 '21

India had the most beautiful downturn. No jumping around like china just slow & steady with consistency. Here's to hoping we keep growing our economy also like that.

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u/Lord_Silverkey Oct 05 '21

I had no idea that India's birthrate had dropped so much in the last couple of decades.

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u/FlamingDrakeTV Oct 05 '21

This is a normal trend when countries moves from "third world" status. And if the projections are correct, the 12th billion human will never be born

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u/Beast_Mstr_64 Oct 05 '21

Technically the 12th billionth died a long time ago

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u/FlamingDrakeTV Oct 05 '21

True 😛 But "the 12th concurrently living person" felt like too much of a mouthful 😂

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u/aaryan_suthar Oct 05 '21

Actually if africa can control itself (by government doing development work and good healthcare being established), the 11th billion person will also not be there. Most population growth in future is not based on us (india) but by african countries.

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u/latortillablanca Oct 05 '21

Indias gradual, steady decline is fascinating. Reasons?

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u/Srshetty171005 Oct 05 '21

The population gradually getting richer and more educated, better access to contraceptives and not reactionary policies like the one child policy in China resulted in that steady decline

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u/howtouseredditwtf Oct 05 '21

Textbook case of gradual social and economic improvement leading to gradual decrease. No forcing from the government (apart from a few years in the mid 70s with mass sterilization) and using social awareness programs.

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u/blunt_analysis Oct 05 '21

no major wars, no cultural revolution, just economic growth and education/family planning awareness campaigns

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u/nazek_the_alien Oct 05 '21

How people reduced the number of children before contraception in 1800-1900?

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u/Queen-of-Leon Oct 05 '21 edited Oct 05 '21

The history of contraceptives and abortion is absolutely fascinating IMO, and if the topic interests you I’d highly recommend looking into it because there’s a lot of info that I won’t be able to mention in this comment

Herbal (and other natural) forms of birth control have been used since at least 1500bc, when it was mentioned in Egyptian documents, and they can be both highly effective and highly dangerous in those days. Both oral remedies (which usually prevent ovulation or otherwise disrupt a woman’s ability to carry carry a fetus to term) and vaginally inserted methods (often spermicide) have been used, historically, and of course there’ve been plenty of superstitious practices that likely didn’t work whatsoever (some of which were extremely unsafe).

Condoms would’ve also already been invented by the 1800’s, but they were still mostly used as an STD preventative over one for pregnancy I think.

In addition to contraceptives, abortions were not super uncommon. I’ve seen estimates as high as 20% of pregnancies in the US ending in abortion through the mid-1800’s, when the practice (though often frowned upon) was legal until “quickening”, the time period when a woman can feel the fetus moving (~3 1/2 months into pregnancy usually). Even the Catholic Church at that time upheld that life didn’t start until quickening, which I think most people today would think is absolutely wild

Another contraceptive that’s completely natural, highly effective, and has been used forever but that most Westerners have seemingly completely forgotten is a thing, is breastfeeding. A woman can’t get pregnant while breastfeeding and it’s still used as a sort of “contraceptive” today, where women will adjust how long to breastfeed their infants in accordance with whether or not they want another kid. Decide it’s time for a baby? Alright kid, time to switch to solid foods. Don’t want another? Kid gets to drink milk ‘til they’re 5. There’s a lot of conditions that need to be met for this to work as a contraceptive (like amount of milk the baby has to drink, etc.) but when done correctly it’s got a failure rate of something crazy low like 1%

Tbh I don’t know exactly how common outright abstinence was as a birth preventative (as mentioned by another commenter), historically; I know the pull-out method has been described in writing dating back up to like 4000 years ago, though.

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u/TheAskewOne Oct 05 '21

A woman can’t get pregnant while breastfeeding

Breastfeeding can stop pregnancies, but it's not an absolute at all. Many women become pregnant while breastfeeding. My grandma had nine kids in 15 years, the first three over 3 and a half years. Formula wasn't a thing at her time. She became pregnant when she was still breastfeeding infants several times in a row.

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u/Kered13 Oct 05 '21 edited Oct 05 '21

The man stops putting his thingy in the woman's thingy when they don't want anymore children. The most primitive form of contraception, this technique has been known for thousands of years.

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u/valhalla0ne Oct 05 '21

The fact that people used to have 7 kids scare me....

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u/lerdnord Oct 05 '21

Some had 1, 2 or none...... so that means others had 14

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u/GingerusLicious Oct 05 '21 edited Oct 05 '21

Eh, generally you had that many because there were no assurances that all of them would live to see adulthood, unlike today.

Plus, having more kids just makes sense if you're a farmer. Kids are free labor once they get old enough to hold a shovel.

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u/nkj94 Oct 05 '21

My great grandfather had 9 Kids, 4 survived infancy

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u/DrKiloDeltaPapa Oct 05 '21

What software did you use to create this visual/ video?

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u/alionBalyan OC: 1 Oct 05 '21

flourish, with heavy customization

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u/MazerRackhem Oct 05 '21

It would be interesting to see a plot of each countries' normalized GDP for the same year.

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u/Temper03 Oct 05 '21

/u/alionBalyan -- in the data, is the UK actually much more volatile in the early years (1800s), or is this a matter of the UK reporting more frequent data than the others? I.e. if the UK is reporting annually and France is reporting every 10 years, France shows a much smoother trend even if they both have the same variability.

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u/bdd4 Oct 05 '21

The war is over. Let's bang

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u/GreyRobb Oct 05 '21

It'd be neat if major world events were lightly shaded in for the years they were present to give some context. World Wars, global or regional pandemics, major social engineering phases, etc. I was watching the years on top as much as the lines, to make sense of the lines movement. Made it a little difficult to watch all at once.